Citat:
Ivan Dimkovic
Yep, za bavarce je Hypo "too big to fail" - sve i da nije, baciti banku lavovima u ovom momentu bi ponovo pokrenulo lanac povlacenja novca na svetskom trzistu sto je poslednje sto bilo kome u ovom momentu treba (osim onih koji su mozda short-ovali razne akcije, ali za njih me nije puno briga :-)
Upravo se svuda navodi da Hypo za Bavariju ne predstavlja rizik, osim za reputaciju BayernLB banke. Banka je veliki problem za Austriju (šesta banka po veličini), odnosno za zemlje bivše Jugoslavije.
Još jedan zanimljiv članak (
http://www.forexpros.com/news/...on,-breakup,-insolvency-106098)
Q+A-At stake for Hypo: Nationalisation, breakup, insolvency
* Expensive for BayernLB to walk away from Hypo Alpe Adria
* Austria unlikely to allow insolvency
* Shareholder meeting on Friday could give clarity
VIENNA/MUNICH, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The future of Hypo Group Alpe Adria, the troubled Austrian lender controlled by Germany's BayernLB, is at stake in shareholder meetings this week, with a choice of unappetising prospects on the menu.
Hypo faces up to 1.7 billion euros ($2.5 billion) in writedowns and bad debt charges, mainly due to bad investments in the Balkans, and needs a similar amount of fresh capital from its owners or some form of state support to keep running.
Following are some questions and answers on what might happen next.
CAN BAYERNLB WALK AWAY, WRITE OFF HYPO?
Yes, but at a price. Since it acquired an initial 50 percent stake for 1.6 billion euros in 2007, BayernLB has injected 1.1 billion euros in fresh equity, 300 million euros in supplementary capital, and 3.3 billion euros in liquidity.
This means that at least 6.3 billion euros are at stake for BayernLB if it walks away -- plus the risk for its reputation. It would also have no possible upside after a restructuring.
But the political climate in Bavaria, which owns most of BayernLB and injected 10 billion euros last year to rescue it, is such that the Premier of the German state, Horst Seehofer, needs to avoid the impression his administration is bailing out an Austrian bank.
Hence his decision may not be based purely on economics.
CAN OTHER SHAREHOLDERS WALK AWAY?
The Austrian state of Carinthia used to own Hypo and its late governor Joerg Haider presided over the bank's breakneck expansion in the Balkans that is now the main source of its losses.
Carinthia would have to tap into assets including stakes in utilities and a fund set up with the proceeds of Hypo's sale to BayernLB to be able to help prop up Hypo, a step Haider's successors would be loath to take.
With only a 12 percent stake left, they say they feel no duty now to step in and have called on the federal government to help. The furious reaction from the rest of Austria suggests they may pay a big political price for this stance for years to come.
Insurer Grawe, which owns the remaining 20 percent, has stayed silent about its plans.
CAN AUSTRIA WALK AWAY, ALLOW INSOLVENCY?
Hardly. In a disorderly insolvency, the Austrian government may end up with 18 billion euros in guarantees for bonds Hypo issued when it was still owned by the state of Carinthia.
It may also have to deal with the damage to other Austrian Hypo banks, some of which are state-owned, which cross-guarantee each others' deposits and covered bonds, and with collateral damage for other Austrian banks that is difficult to anticipate.
On the other hand, a large part of Hypo's assets are abroad, mainly in Italy, Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia, and might be seized by local authorities in an insolvency, leaving little upside.
SO WHAT IS THE BASE SCENARIO?
Restructuring, breakup and sale in bits, either by BayernLB and the Austrian government together or only by Austria is the base scenario, fresh capital or not.
DOES AUSTRIA HAVE TO INJECT FRESH CASH?
No. The government already injected 900 million euros in non-voting capital last year which it has the right to swap into common stock to gain vote-wielding influence. It could guarantee for problematic assets instead, which would reduce the need for fresh capital accordingly.
WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEK?
Hypo's supervisory board, on which BayernLB Chief Executive Michael Kemmer and other shareholder representatives sit, meets on Thursday, and a formal shareholder meeting is due on Friday.
Those meetings could set the course for Hypo's future, although some sources say talks could go on for several weeks.
(Reporting by Boris Groendahl and Christian Gutlederer in Vienna and Peter Maushagen in Munich; editing by John Stonestreet)